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Valuing the appraisers

As with most appraisers, Sharon Desfor, owner, HeliValue$ tripped and fell into the role. “Consider this: if every parent were to ask their children what they want to be when they grow up, how many children would answer, ‘I want to appraise helicopters?’ None, that’s how many. Not one,” she says. Desfor began back in 1983 at The Official Helicopter Blue Book. It was there that Desfor met her husband, Barry. “He got me interested in ‘Why’.

Why is this helicopter worth more than that one? Why does the industry prefer this model over its competitors?”

With a love of maths and logic, Desfor started trying to quantify the price delta against differences in the specifications, component times, installed mission equipment, the maintenance programmes or even the reseller, in some cases. “I started looking for the reasons behind the volatility in helicopter values. At some point, I realised to my surprise that this was much more interesting than figuring out how to reinstall the operating system into the idiotic computer one more time.”

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3Q 2020 Blue Book Updates

HeliValue$, Inc. has recently reviewed pricing in

The Official Helicopter Blue Book ^®

Resale pricing adjustments were made for the following helicopter models:

Mfg.Model

Airbus

AS350B

AS350BA

AS350B1

AS350B2

AS350B3

AS350B3e

AS350D

Leonardo

A109E

Sikorsky

S76A

S76A+

S76A++

S76B

S76C+

S76C++

S76D

Resale-Value

↓

↓↑

↓

Comments

Pricing change

Resale pricing adjustments are based on actual sales transactions and current market conditions such as overall trends in asking prices, increase or decrease in supply, demand, and sales volume. We obtain sales pricing data from owners and operators, lenders and lessors, brokers and equipment manufacturers worldwide.

While we do review all models each quarter, frequently traded models are updated as soon as they begin to show variation from the previously published values. Stay up to date on resale pricing changes by purchasing an annual subscription.

3Q Market Overview

Much as we’d all hoped to start seeing some improvement in overall helicopter economics, we’re sadly not there yet. Yes, there is a moderate amount of activity and interest, but values remain stubbornly low and are still falling for the most part. While there are a few models that have so far managed to hold their value, those models are limited to the traditionally-EMS marketplace. The Airbus EC-135P2/T2 & EC135P3/T3 series, Airbus EC145T1/T2/e series come to mind here. In addition, there are a few newer models with little to no active supply on the market which are weathering the storm, such as the Leonardo AW169, Bell 505, and the Bell 407GXP & 407GXi.

Sad to see that the AS350 values, which had been holding up surprisingly well, are starting to collapse under the strain of 2020. We are starting to see older Bell 206 and Bell 407 models values decline but the sales volume of them is not large enough for our liking on making an adjustment just yet, possibly next quarter if things keep going the way they are. And I think it’s no real surprise to anyone that the S-76s are down in value once again. We may see some value modulation in the D market once the world and its economy starts to normalize (I refuse to say “if” here, but I’m thinking it pretty loudly.) But the As, Bs, and Cs are pretty much done.

If by chance you are a helicopter owner or operator and are seeing something other than what we are publishing, please give me a call at 1-847-487-8258 or shoot me an email at [email protected] and I will be happy to discuss the market with you. If you have any sales you would like us to know about, I would also be happy to discuss them with you. Without your willingness to share information, we wouldn’t be here to keep the industry informed and up to date.

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2Q 2020 Blue Book Updates

HeliValue$, Inc. held its quarterly review of The Official Helicopter Blue Book^®

on August 19, 2020. Resale pricing adjustments were made for the following helicopter manufacturers:

Airbus, Bell, Columbia Helicopters, Enstrom, Leonardo, MD, Robinson, Schweizer and Sikorsky

Mfg.Model	Resale Value	Comments

Airbus
AS350B2	↓	Pricing change
AS350B3	↓	Pricing change
AS350B3e	↓	Pricing change
AS365N3	↓	Pricing change
BK117A4	↓	Pricing change
BK117B2	↓	Pricing change
BK117C1	↓	Pricing change
BK117C2/EC145T1	↓	Pricing change
BK117D2/EC145T2/H145	--	Resale pricing made ACTIVE
EC130B4	↓	Pricing change
EC130T2	↓	Pricing change

Bell
206B3	↓	Pricing change
206L4	↓	Pricing change
222B	↓	Pricing change
222U	↓↑	Pricing change
222SP	↓	Pricing change
407	↓	Pricing change
407Gx	↓	Pricing change
407GXP	↓	Pricing change
407GXi	--	Resale pricing made ACTIVE
412EP	↓	Pricing change
429	↓↑	Pricing change
429 WLG	--	Resale pricing made ACTIVE
505	--	Resale pricing made ACTIVE

Columbia Helicopters
107-II	--	Resale pricing made ACTIVE
234-LR	--	Resale pricing made ACTIVE
234-MLR	--	Resale pricing made ACTIVE
234-UT	--	Resale pricing made ACTIVE

Enstrom
F28A	↓	Pricing change
F28C	↓	Pricing change
F28C-2	↓	Pricing change
F-280	↓	Pricing change
F-280C	↓	Pricing change
280F/FX	↓	Pricing change
480	↓	Pricing change
480B	↓	Pricing change

Leonardo
A109E	↓	Pricing change
A109S	↓	Pricing change
AW109SP	↓	Pricing change
AW119Ke	↓	Pricing change
AW119Kx	↓	Pricing change

MD
530F	↓	Pricing change
600N	--	Added 2016 pricing
900/902	↓	Pricing change

Robinson
R22 Beta	↓	Pricing change
R22 Beta 2	↓	Pricing change
R22 Mariner 1	↓	Pricing change
R22 Mariner 2	↓	Pricing change
R44 Astro	↓	Pricing change
R44 Raven 1	↓	Pricing change
R44 Clipper 1	↓	Pricing change

Schweizer
300CB	↓	Pricing change
300C/S300C	↓	Pricing change

Sikorsky
S76B	↓	Pricing change
S76C	--	Pricing page INACTIVE
S76C+	↓	VIP configuration down
S76C++	↓	Price change/ VIP configuration increase

While we do review all models each quarter, frequently traded models are updated as soon as they begin to show variation from the previously published values.

Stay up to date on resale pricing changes by purchasing an annual subscription.

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2Q Market Overview

All Blue Book adjustments as well as our comments below have been based on the general global economy, and specifically the helicopter resale market, leading up to August 19, 2020.

When are we going to wake up from the nightmare 2020 continues to dish out? The helicopter industry just can’t catch a break.

As you can see in the list of aircraft impacted by this quarter’s pricing meeting, values are decidedly heading in the wrong direction.

Many operators have been working diligently to downsize and restructure their existing fleets. By removing older models and models no longer in demand, they are continuing to thin out nonoperational aircraft and to consolidate the number of different models they operate. In our last newsletter, we mentioned the operators were benefiting from “parting out” their unused aircraft and selling off parts. Sadly, this has in turn left them with many unsaleable parts and unflyable aircraft. This downward spiral has been a direct result of the COVID pandemic and the global economic shut down, of course, but it came on the heels of an already weak helicopter market. Operations and related businesses are still not operating at full capacity: some have had to close down all together. We expect to see further consolidation between operators (and lenders!) as we progress through 2020. Worse, we expect to see the heli-tour industry decimated by the end of the year, with Sundance Helicopters leading the pack last week in closing their doors forever.

Really there are only two bright-ish spots. 1) A fairly significant number of helicopters actually provide essential services: emergency medical, offshore oil transport, and firefighting all spring immediately to mind. 2) The price of WTI Crude more than doubled between April 17, 2020 (at $20.43) and August 18, 2020, ($43.12). We can only hope this is a sign that the contracts for heavy helicopters will remain steady. If we wanted to be very optimistic, perhaps even that those contracts will start to grow again.

Sorry, we don’t really feel that optimistic. The oil companies and the operators who serve them have become so efficient that we’re unlikely to see any significant increase in helicopter contracts until the price of oil exceeds $60/bbl again for an extended period, which will probably not be in the next 2-3 years. Sharon reminded me (and therefore all of us), however, that industry participants go in generations as much as families do. In 20 years the people who have learned these lessons so painfully will largely be retired, and the next gen of brash, forward-looking managers will decide that the by-then-$90/bbl-and-still-rising oil economy demands more workers on the platforms and more platforms and more exploration and more helicopters to service all of that. New financial entrepreneurs will look at the helicopter industry and decide it’s underfunded and ripe for exploitation. They will pump up the helicopter economy and everyone will make a massive amount of money. Again. Until the price of oil comes down. Again. This is not the first time this has happened; it’s just the first time we’ve had a pandemic we can conveniently blame.

This will pass, eventually. Our industry will look different, for a while. Until people forget, and efficiencies start to feel like restrictions, and the bubble starts to inflate once again.

If by chance you are a helicopter owner or operator and are seeing something other than what is being published, please give me a call at 1-847-487-8258 or shoot me an email at [email protected] and I will be happy to discuss with you. If you have any sales you would like us to know about I would also be happy to discuss with you. Without your willingness to share information, we wouldn’t be here to keep the industry informed and up to date.

HeliValue$ leads the way with remote helicopter appraisals

Long-established helicopter appraisers HeliValue$ has used the opportunity of lockdown, and have pivoted their work to appraise helicopters remotely. From a recent Helicopter Investor town hall webinar where both President Jason Kmiecik and Owner Sharon Desfor spoke, it is clear that the company is leading the way in adapting to the situation.

After an initial few weeks of hiatus as the aviation finance industry responded to the sudden stoppage, HeliValue$ soon found their traditional customer base needing appraisal work done, and pivoted their offering to achieve this. Having previously sent an engineer onsite to perform a physical inspection of a helicopter, the work is now entirely remote – with the obvious savings to the customer (typically a bank, lessor, financier or insurer) not having to pick up the air fares or hotel expenses of going on site. The aim is still to verify the physical state and maintenance records and provide a valuation report, but the removal of the travel element means that the process is completed quicker than before.

Residual Values in Helicopter Leasing

Residual Values in Helicopter Leasing

By Sharon Desfor, ASA, HeliValue$, Inc.

There are two types of residual value analyses, and they do not comfortably co-exist. One type calculates usage directly on an annual dollar-per-flight hour basis, assuming a constant market, with no past or future inflation taken into account.

The second type calculates current versus low markets, accounting for past and optionally future inflation, and assuming the helicopter remains in one component status or possibly moves from one component status to another lesser status (for instance from New to Mid Time) over the term of the lease. This is the type we will addressing here.

Useful Definitions:

Replacement Cost New: Either the OEM’s current new price, or the historical cost of the most recent production year of the asset trended for inflation.

Physical Deterioration (physical depreciation): Loss in value due to consumption of an asset’s life. Maybe be “curable” or “incurable.” Curable deterioration is characterized by the economic feasibility of repair. Incurable deterioration is characterized by the economic infeasibility of repair.

In a helicopter, by means of overhaul or replacement of its components, physical deterioration may be cured at a cost less than the value of the helicopter; therefore, physical deterioration due to regular flight time is curable.Physical deterioration due to accident or incident may be curable or incurable.

Functional obsolescence (functional or technological depreciation): Loss in value due to factors inherent in the asset itself when compared to its current modern replacement.

In a helicopter, the amount of functional obsolescence is typically the value delta between the subject helicopter and the most recent variant in the same series.

Economic obsolescence (economic or market depreciation): Loss in value due to factors external to the subject asset. In its simplest form, it’s the difference between the depreciated Replacement Cost New and the observed market price for a comparable machine.

Fair Market Value (FMV): is an opinion expressed in terms of money, at which the property would change hands between a willing buyer and a willing seller, neither being under any compulsion to buy or to sell and both having reasonable knowledge of relevant facts, as of a specific date.

Orderly Liquidation Value (OLV): is an opinion of the gross amount, expressed in terms of money, that typically could be realized from a liquidation sale, given a reasonable period of time to find a purchaser (or purchasers), with the seller being compelled to sell on an as-is, where-is basis, as of a specific date.

Source: Machinery & Technical Specialties Committee of the American Society of Appraisers – July 25, 2010

Click here to read full article

1Q 2020 Blue Book Updates

HeliValue$, Inc. held its quarterly review of The Official Helicopter Blue Book^®

on April 1, 2020. Resale pricing adjustments were made for the following helicopter models:

Mfg.Model	Resale-Value	Comments

Airbus
EC225LP	↑	Configuration change

Leonardo
A109	↓	Pricing and configuration change
AW139 Short Nose	↓	Pricing and configuration change
AW139 Long Nose	↓	Pricing and configuration change

Sikorsky
S92A	--	Resale pricing made ACTIVE

1Q Market Overview

All adjustments and comments were based on the market leading up to April 1, 2020. It is difficult knowing that in the past 28 days when our last pricing meeting was held, the entire world has been turned upside down because of the COVID-19 virus, and the crash of oil prices to unprecedented levels never seen before. The offshore markets were finally showing signs of movement again. Areas that hadn’t seen sales in a while were now starting to see them. Optimism was growing in the industry, brokers were busy again, and deals were closing. I wish I could say the same about the current situation.

Although there were only a few models that needed adjustments, there were plenty of transactions taking place with other models as well. Most transactions are remaining in line with current Blue Book pricing, which is not a bad thing; values remaining steady is seen as a positive in anyone’s eyes these days. The models that did need an adjustment this time are based on numerous transactions outside the previous published pricing, some by a significant margin. This quarter, we saw an increase in the medium and heavy class aircraft sales while the light single class sales have slowed.

Aircraft being parted out are becoming more common these days; it’s only matter of time before parts prices fall through the floor on some models, due to the flooding of the parts markets. Operators tearing down machines to be used in their ongoing operations are seeing the biggest benefit right now, while the ones parting them out as a business are being left with many unsaleable parts off the aircraft.

If by chance you are a helicopter owner or operator and are seeing something other than what is being published, please give me a call at 1-847-487-8258 or shoot me an email at [email protected] and I will be happy to discuss with you. If you have any sales you would like us to know about I would also be happy to discuss with you. Without your willingness to share information, we wouldn’t be here to keep the industry informed and up to date.

Subscribe NOW

Detailed Value Report - Any Time, Anywhere

The cost to you was ~~$495~~ now $395/each.

HeliCalc^® is the newest addition to the tools and resources offered by HeliValue$. We developed it specifically for our customers with a strong background in helicopter operations, to give you 24/7 access to the value of your specific helicopter in its exact current configuration and component status. HeliCalc^® provides a comprehensive report based on your helicopter’s actual component times, maintenance programs, and mission equipment.

HeliCalc^® is not an appraisal and does not meet USPAP standards. It is an Automated Valuation Model (AVM) and should not be used in place of a formal appraisal performed by a Qualified Appraiser as defined in the U.S. Code of Federal Regulations, or its equivalent in your country.

If you are a Qualified Appraiser yourself, with the appropriate level of experience to establish competence as required by the professional appraisal standards of your country, HeliCalc^® is a superb tool to aid you in performing helicopter appraisals. Let HeliValue$ do the research work of maintaining overhaul and replacement costs, maintenance intervals, and marketplace trends. All you have to do is enter the data and output the report. You can incorporate our HeliCalc^® directly into your own appraisal report to your client.

To complete a HeliCalc^® report you will need:

· Current component status report

· Detailed installed equipment list

· The knowledge and experience to accurately read the reports and identify the components’ nomenclature, time remaining (TR) or time since overhaul (TSO).

Start HeliCalc®

Coronavirus to hit offshore flight demand

The number of offshore helicopter flights will be hit heavily by the coronavirus pandemic, according to Air & Sea Analytics research.

Coronavirus has driven down demand for oil and gas and impacted the day-to-day operations on oil rigs, spelling bad news for offshore helicopter operators who have, so far, witnessed an uptick in flight hours in 2020.

4Q 2019 Blue Book Updates

HeliValue$, Inc. held its quarterly review of The Official Helicopter Blue Book^®on February 4, 2020. Resale pricing adjustments were made for the following helicopter models:

Mfg.Model	Resale-Value	Comments
Airbus
AS355NP	↓	resale pricing decrease
BK117A4	↓	resale pricing decrease
EC135P2/P2+	↑	resale pricing increase
Bell
212	↓	resale pricing decrease
407	↑	resale pricing increase
427	--	configuration pricing decrease
Boeing
CH-47D	↑	resale pricing increase
Sikorsky
S76A/A+/A++	↓	resale pricing decrease
S76B	↓	resale pricing decrease
S76C	↓	resale pricing decrease
S76C+	↓	resale pricing decrease/configuration pricing change

S76C++	↓	resale pricing decrease/configuration pricing change

S76D	↓	resale pricing decrease/configuration pricing change

S92A	↓	resale pricing decrease/configuration pricing change

4Q Market Overview

HAI's HeliExpo 2020 was a HUGE success for us this year. Walking the floor for the first time in about 30 years instead of exhibiting, meeting owners, operators, vendors, gave us a great feel of what is going on in the industry. Meetings with lessors provided insight into the offshore oil and gas industry. Meeting with operators showed encouraging signs for the EMS markets with fleet replacement plans in place. All in all it was a leap in the right direction, as we all know this industry needs.

Piston helicopter sales slowed down again this quarter, and inventory levels have started increasing again. We attribute the increasing levels to more Robinson R44 models being put up for sale.

Light single turbine sales seem to have severely slowed this quarter, with inventory levels increasing again. Airbus AS350 series and Bell 407 series seem to be the exception, even though sales activity has fallen, the inventory levels seem to be falling as well. With the shrinking inventory levels for AS350 and 407 models, the sales prices are trending upwards again.

Light twin turbine sales remain stronger than last quarter, with inventory levels shrinking at a good rate. This is particularly due to the 135 / 145 / A109E / AW109S / and AW109SP sales taking place. VIP configured helicopters have been the majority of sales, with a very high percentage of them being converted for EMS operations.

Medium twin turbines are finally seeing an increase in activity and sales. The downside of this is that the sales prices are continuing to decrease. With the S76 markets reverted to parting out the aircraft rather than trying to sell them, the only buyers left seem to be low time VIP buyers. With the new IOGP 590 and 420 standards released, the 412 series, S76 series through the C++, EC155 series, and the AS365 series are effectively removed from the list of aircraft allowed to operate in the North Sea. Although these are guidelines and not mandates, the IOGP standards usually trickle down to other areas of the world for offshore operations.

Heavy twin activity has slowed down - again - as inventory levels starting to increase - again. There have been a few recent sales of the S92A model and the parting out of this aircraft model has also started. Oil prices continue to remain low and will be the major determinant of values on this model going forward. The values associated with this model are going to remain low until the inventory levels diminish and there are no longer aircraft being offered at such low prices.

By: Jason Kmiecik, President

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Detailed Value Report - Any Time, Anywhere

The cost to you is $495/each.

Use coupon HC100 and receive $100 off your first HeliCalc® order.

This offer expires December31, 2020.

To complete a HeliCalc^® report you will need:

· Current component status report

· Detailed installed equipment list

· The knowledge and experience to accurately read the reports and identify the components’ nomenclature, time remaining (TR) or time since overhaul (TSO).

Start HeliCalc®

The Helivalues website will be under maintenance this weekend, March 14 and March 15. You may experience slowness or outages during this time.

If you have any questions, please contact our office after 9am CDT on Monday at 1-847-487-8258 or by email, [email protected].

Thank you for your patience.

3Q 2019 Blue Book Updates

HeliValue$, Inc. held its review of The Official Helicopter Blue Book® on October 22, 2019. Resale pricing adjustments were made for the following helicopter models:

Mfg Model	Resale Value	Comments

Airbus EC155B1	−	configuration pricing change

Boeing CH-47D	↑	resale price increase

Leonardo AW119 Koala	−	configuration pricing change

Leonardo AW119Ke	↓	configuration pricing change and resale pricing reduced

Leonardo AW119Kx	↓	2018 and 2019 resale pricing added, configuration pricing change and resales pricing reduced

Leonardo AW109SP	↓	configuration pricing change and resale pricing reduced

Leonardo AW139 Short Nose	↓	configuration pricing change and resale pricing reduced

Leonardo AW139 Long Nose	↓	configuration pricing change and resale pricing reduced

MD MD500D	↓	configuration pricing change and resale pricing reduced

Sikorsky S76C+	↓	configuration pricing change and resale pricing reduced

Sikorsky S76C++	↓	configuration pricing change and resale pricing reduced

Sikorsky S76D	−	configuration pricing change

3Q Market Overview

Piston helicopter sales remain stable from last quarter, but inventory levels continue to fall. If demand remains stable over the next six months, this decrease in inventory could have a positive impact on resale prices in 2020.

Light single turbine sales seem to have slowed this quarter. The few sales that have taken place have started to indicate signs of possible weakening in the Bell 407 and Airbus AS350 markets. Continue to monitor this newsletter and website for any changes in the near future.

Light twin turbine sales also seem to have slowed down this quarter. VIP configured helicopters, however, have shown to be the larger number of sales in comparison to other configurations.

And, the only good news this quarter, medium twin sales are on the rise. Bell 212 and 412, Leonardo AW109SP and AW139, Sikorsky S76C+ and S76C++ are seeing more sales activity than in the first half of this year. Back to the bad news – all of these models are seeing declining values. Possibly these falling values are the driving factor in the transactions. As in the light twin market, there is an increase in VIP helicopter transactions, predominantly in Leonardo and Sikorsky helicopters.

Heavy twin activity continued to increase this quarter, but no new sales have been recorded. On October 31st there was an Airbus H225 crash off the South Korean coast claiming the lives of all seven occupants aboard. The cause of the accident is not yet determined. As with previous major helicopter accidents that could affect the desirability of particular models, we are monitoring both news and attitudes closely to detect the eventual market impact. Please do not rush to impair this model on your balance sheets, especially if you report under US GAAP and cannot reverse the impairment.

By: Jason Kmiecik, President

Subscribe NOW

Detailed Value Report - Any Time, Anywhere

The cost to you is $495/each.

Use coupon HC100 and receive $100 off your first HeliCalc® order.

This offer expires December 31, 2019.

HeliCalc® is the newest addition to the tools and resources offered by HeliValue$. We developed it specifically for our customers with a strong background in helicopter operations, to give you 24/7 access to the value of your specific helicopter in its exact current configuration and component status. HeliCalc® provides a comprehensive report based on your helicopter’s actual component times, maintenance programs, and mission equipment.

HeliCalc® is not an appraisal and does not meet USPAP standards. It is an Automated Valuation Model (AVM) and should not be used in place of a formal appraisal performed by a Qualified Appraiser as defined in the U.S. Code of Federal Regulations, or its equivalent in your country.

If you are a Qualified Appraiser yourself, with the appropriate level of experience to establish competence as required by the professional appraisal standards of your country, HeliCalc® is a superb tool to aid you in performing helicopter appraisals. Let HeliValue$ do the research work of maintaining overhaul and replacement costs, maintenance intervals, and marketplace trends. All you have to do is enter the data and output the report. You can incorporate our HeliCalc® directly into your own appraisal report to your client.

To complete a HeliCalc® report you will need:

· Current component status report

· Detailed installed equipment list

· The knowledge and experience to accurately read the reports and identify the components’ nomenclature, time remaining (TR) or time since overhaul (TSO).

Start HeliCalc®